Ingeniería Ambiental

Aplicación del modelo de regresión logístico binario para la identificación de pérdida de cobertura bosque en el Municipio de Pauna, Boyacá

In the department of Boyacá, Colombia, there is the Municipality of Pauna, a municipality of approximately 250 square kilometers recognized for its large extensions of forested areas, areas that by 1990 covered more than 50% of the municipal extension but that in The last 31 years has been affected by deforestation, as a complement, by means of the analysis of “Raster” images, a loss of 40 km2 of forests in the municipality between 1990 and 2015 were identified, therefore, it was proposed to identify what factors cause deforestation and which areas are most vulnerable, a procedure developed through the binary logistic regression model, and in which it was found that variables such as: the distance from the forests to the river, the density of agricultural crops, the distance from the houses to the forests, the population density in the sector and the slopes of the municipality, impact on the probability and vulnerability of an area being deforested, on the other hand, it was identified that the municipality tends to have low probabilities of losing its forest cover in general, but even so it presents high risk points against the phenomenon, and finally, in the final phase of the project, strategies for conservation and care of the forest ecosystem in Pauna were proposed, strategies that were contrasted against those found in the municipality's EOT and with the action plans of the CONPES 4021 document, thus generating projective scenarios to protect the forest cover in the coming years.

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