DOCTORADO EN INGENIERÍA - ÉNFASIS EN CIENCIAS DE LA COMPUTACIÓN · 2025
Artificial intelligence and complex network- based model for seismicity analysis in the colombian region
Research about Earthquake Networks has been carried on for many years, and they have been proved as a tool to analyze the seismicity. However, there has been no comprehensive integration of this representation with artificial intelligence methods to model the dynamics of seismicity. This thesis presents a novel approach to find how Earthquake Networks, supported by Machine Learning methods, can be used to look into the dynamics of the seismicity in the Colombian region. This thesis shows how can Earthquake Networks be constructed to represent the seismicity in the region of study. The information of such networks has been analyzed, contrasting their characteristics with the variations of the seismicity in time, in order to find an appropriate way of creating the Earthquake Networks. Also, data analysis of a seismic catalog is performed to develop an annotation schema and a pipeline for the application of Machine Learning algorithms with Earthquake Networks information. The outputs of the Machine Learning models trained have been analyzed using different metrics, and some models appeared fit to forecast some aspects of the seismicity such as the seismic energy released by the expected events, or the moment of occurrence of the next event. The findings indicate that earthquake networks, combined with machine learning techniques, can provide valuable insights into seismic behavior, and may serve as a predictive tool for seismic monitoring. These models can potentially be integrated into real-time systems for seismic observatories, offering forecasting and alerts to users of interest.
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Contenido
- INTRODUCTIONp. 17
- MOTIVATIONp. 18
- PROBLEM STATEMENTp. 19
- GOALS AND SCOPEp. 20
- DELIVERIES FROM THIS RESEARCHp. 21
- THESIS OUTLINEp. 23
- STATE OF THE ARTp. 24
- NETWORKS……p. 24
- Complexity in Seismicity and Complex Networksp. 25
- Earthquake networksp. 22
- Seismicity information from earthquake networksp. 32
- Role of cell size in Cells as Nodes Earthquake networksp. 35
- Conclusions and Discussionp. 37
- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN SEISMOLOGY AND COMPLEX NETWORKSp. 39
- AI applications in seismologyp. 39
- Machine learning on Complex networksp. 43
- CHAPTER HIGHLIGHTSp. 45
- EARTHQUAKE COMPLEX NETWORKS IN COLOMBIAp. 46
- EARTHQUAKE NETWORK ANALYSISp. 50
- Cell size assessmentp. 50
- Experiments designp. 52
- RESULTSp. 36
- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONSp. 61
- CHAPTER HIGHLIGHTSp. 45
- LEARNINGp. 114
- EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSISp. 65
- Catalog contributorsp. 66
- Seismicity Analysis: Energy and timep. 67
- Geographic sectorization of seismicityp. 74
- Input Features and outputsp. 77
- Models and learning algorithmsp. 79
- Ontology definitionp. 82
- CLASSIFICATION MODELSp. 84
- REGRESSION MODELSp. 91
- 4.3.1 Days for the next earthquake regressionp. 92
- 4.3.2 Magnitude for the next event regressionp. 94
- 4.3.3 Logarithm of seismicity for the next events regressionp. 97
- CHAPTER HIGHLIGHTSp. 45
- CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONp. 37
- BIBLIOGRAPHYp. 107
- APPENDICESp. 115
- APPENDIX 2: REGRESSION METRICS EXTENDEDp. 115
- DIFFERENT CELL SIZES (DX)p. 115
- APPENDIX 2: REGRESSION METRICS EXTENDEDp. 115
- APPENDIX 3: PUBLICATIONS MADE DURING THE DOCTORAL STUDIESp. 120
- SPATIOTEMPORAL SEQUENCE OF EARTHQUAKESp. 29
- FIGURE 3: ML METHODS AND THEIR APPLICATIONSp. 39
- SEISMOLOGICAL TASKp. 41
- FIGURE 5: GENERAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION MODELp. 42
- FIGURE 6: SEISMICITY IN COLOMBIA - JANUARY 1973 TO OCTOBER 2023p. 47
- REGIONp. 36
- DEPTHSp. 49
- DEPTHp. 50
- FIGURE 10: NUMBER OF NODES VS. CELL SIZEp. 54
- FIGURE 11: DEGREE OF NODES VS. CELL SIZEp. 54
- FIGURE 12: CLUSTERING COEFFICIENT VS. CELL SIZEp. 55
- FIGURE 13: AVERAGE PATH LENGTH VS. CELL SIEp. 55
- FIGURE 14: SMALL WORLDNESS VS. CELL SIZEp. 56
- VS. CELL SIZEp. 56
- (YELLOW) AND WS (GREEN) NETWORKS VS. CELL SIZEp. 58
- BA (YELLOW) AND WS (GREEN) NETWORKS VS. CELL SIZEp. 58
- (YELLOW) AND WS (GREEN) NETWORKS VS. CELL SIZEp. 59
- (SQUARES), AND BA (CROSSES)p. 61
- STATIONSp. 66
- FIGURE 21: CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SEISMICITY CATALOG OVER TIMEp. 67
- CATALOGp. 78
- FIGURE 23: DISTRIBUTION OF MAGNITUDE OF EVENTS OVER TIMEp. 69
- TIMEp. 70
- EVENTSp. 68
- TIMEp. 71
- TIMEp. 72
- TIMEp. 72
- VS. TIMEp. 73
- VS. TIMEp. 73
- VS. TIMEp. 74
- ACCORDING TO THE SECTORp. 75
- BAR PLOT SHOWS THE NUMBER OF EVENTS FOR EACH SECTORp. 75
- ACCORDING TO THE SECTORp. 76
- BAR PLOT SHOWS THE NUMBER OF EVENTS FOR EACH SECTORp. 76
- FIGURE 37: ML MODELS CREATION PIPELINEp. 79
- MODELSp. 83
- FIGURE 39: DGCNN ARCHITECTUREp. 81
- BINNING AND 3D NETWORKSp. 89
- BINNING AND 2D NETWORKSp. 90
- WINDOWSp. 92
- WINDOWSp. 93
- EVENTS WINDOWSp. 93
- EVENTS WINDOWSp. 94
- EVENTS WINDOWSp. 95
- EVENTS WINDOWSp. 95
- 50 EVENTS WINDOWSp. 96
- 50 EVENTS WINDOWSp. 96
- WINDOWSp. 97
- WINDOWSp. 98
- 50 EVENTS WINDOWSp. 98
- 50 EVENTS WINDOWSp. 99
- 50 EVENTS WINDOWSp. 100
- WINDOWSp. 101
- WINDOWSp. 101
- 50 EVENTS WINDOWSp. 102
- SUPPORTED BY EARTHQUAKE NETWORKS AND MLp. 104
- OBJECTIVE OF THE THESISp. 21
- TABLE 2. SEVEN NETWORK MEASURES IN COMPLEX NETWORKSp. 26
- NETWORKSp. 24
- TABLE 4: EARTHQUAKE NETWORK PARAMETERSp. 33
- TABLE 6: APPLICATIONS OF ML IN EARTHQUAKE SEISMOLOGY. FROM [59]p. 40
- AND REGRESSION IN SEISMOLOGYp. 43
- TABLE 8: PARAMETERS OF THE EXPERIMENTSp. 53
- MODELSp. 83
- TABLE 10: ML PROBLEMS AND TARGET OUTPUTSp. 78
- TABLE 11: PARAMETERS USED TO CREATE DGCNN MODELS FOR ENp. 81
- TABLE 12: METRICS USED TO QUALIFY CLASSIFICATIONSp. 84
- SECTORIZATION MODELSp. 85
- SECTORIZATION MODELSp. 86
- MODELSp. 83
- MODELSp. 83
- TABLE 17: DESCRIPTION OF REGRESSION METRICSp. 91
- NEXT EVENTp. 92
- FOR THE NEXT EVENTp. 94
- RELEASED BY THE NEXT 10 EVENTSp. 97
- RELEASED BY THE NEXT 20 EVENTSp. 99